@ EVIEWS replication program to accompany Green, Palmquist, @ @ and Schickler (1997) "Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique @ @ input variables: @ @ gallup=quarterly macropartisanship, from obtained from MES @ @ app_new=quarterly approval, obtained from MES and updated @ @ after 1992 using Gallup phone polls @ @ mics=index of consumer sentiment, obtained from MES and @ @ updated after 1992 using published data @ @ nes=National Election Study reading of macropartisanship @ @ cbsnyt=quarterly cbs/nyt macropid, from MES and updated @ @ dem=Democratic party dummy @ @ jfk1=dummy for first jfk quarter in office; same for other presidents@ @ jfkt=template dummy with geometric decline after 1st quarter(see MES)@ @ jfk=dummy for each quarter jfk was in office @ @ app_newp and micsp: multiplied by -1 when GOP is in office @ @ footnote 6: adjusting Gallup phone polls after 1988:2 @ @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ smpl 1952:1 1996:4 genr time=0 genr time=time(-1)+1 @ regression model predicts difference between phone @ @ and personal interviews, noting the significant time trend @ equation galadj.ls (G_PHON-G_PERS) C TIME @ results: predict value for 1988:2, for which TIME=145 @ @(G_PHON-G_PERS) = 16.76149 - 0.13999307*TIME @ @ 3.537=16.76149 - 0.13999307*145 @ smpl 1952:1 1988:1 genr galnew=gallup smpl 1988:2 1996:4 genr galnew=g_phon+3.537 @ estimating variance of updated Gallup series through 1988:1 @ smpl 1952:1 1988:1 genr gvar=@var(galnew)*(141/140) @ estimated variance = 16.937 @ @ estimating variance of nes and corresponding gallup series @ smpl 1954:1 1996:4 if nes > 0 genr gvar=@var(galnew)*((@obs(galnew)+1)/@obs(galnew)) genr nvar=@var(nes)*((@obs(nes)+1)/@obs(nes)) @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ Table 1 @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ estimate ARMA(1,1) model for Gallup and CBS @ smpl 1953:1 1996:4 equation tab1a.ls galnew c ar(1) ma(1) equation tab1b.ls cbsnyt c ar(1) ma(1) @ ---------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ see Gauss code for simulation experiment on p. 14 @ @ ---------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ estimate ARMA(1,1) model for Gallup 1953:1 1988:1 @ smpl 1953:1 1988:1 equation p14a.ls galnew c ar(1) equation p14b.ls galnew c ar(1) ma(1) @ ---------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ examine predictive contribution of 24 control variables: Gallup @ @ regression 1: big model @ equation p15a.LS GALnew C GALnew(-1) MA(1) IKE JFK LBJ GRF JEC RWR JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 IKET JFKT LBJT RMNT GRFT JECT RWRT ASSASSIN EVENTS WATERGATE TROOPS IRAN @ regression 2: null model @ equation p15b.LS GALnew C GALnew(-1) MA(1) @ ---------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ examine predictive contribution of 24 control variables: approval @ @ regression 1: big model @ equation p15c.LS app_new C app_new(-1) MA(1) IKE JFK LBJ GRF JEC RWR JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 IKET JFKT LBJT RMNT GRFT JECT RWRT ASSASSIN pEVENTS WATERGATE TROOPS IRAN @ regression 2: null model @ equation p15d.LS app_new C app_new(-1) MA(1) JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 @------------------------------------------------------------------------@ @Table 2 @ @------------------------------------------------------------------------@ equation tab2b.LS GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) IKE JFK LBJ GRF JEC RWR JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 IKET JFKT LBJT RMNT GRFT JECT RWRT ASSASSIN EVENTS WATERGATE TROOPS IRAN lagpcon lagpares equation tab2c.LS GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) IKE JFK LBJ GRF JEC RWR JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 IKET JFKT LBJT RMNT GRFT JECT RWRT ASSASSIN EVENTS WATERGATE TROOPS IRAN lagpcon lagpapp equation tab2d.LS GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) IKE JFK LBJ GRF JEC RWR JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 IKET JFKT LBJT RMNT GRFT JECT RWRT ASSASSIN EVENTS WATERGATE TROOPS IRAN lagpcon equation tab2e.LS GALNEW C GALNEW(-1) dem JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 lagpcon lagpares @-----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ Table 3: see SAS/ETS input @-----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @-----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ Table 4 @ @-----------------------------------------------------------------------@ smpl 1981:2 1981:3 1982:2 1988:4 equation tab4c1.LS CBSNYT C CBSNYT(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) equation tab4g1.LS galnew C galnew(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) smpl 1976:2 1996:4 equation tab4c2.LS CBSNYT C JEC1 RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 JEC RWR GHB WXC CBSNYT(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) equation tab4g2.LS galnew C JEC1 RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 JEC RWR GHB WXC galnew(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) equation tab4c3.LS CBSNYT C JEC1 RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 dem CBSNYT(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) equation tab4g3.LS galnew C JEC1 RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 dem galnew(-1) APP_NEWP(-1) MICSP(-1) @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ Table 5 @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ smpl 1953:1 1996:4 @create mean/party centered mics and approval @ equation centerm.ls micsp c dem genr micspdiff=resid equation centera.ls app_newp c dem genr apppdiff=resid equation tab5a.ls galnew c galnew(-1) micspdiff ma(1) equation tab5b.ls galnew c galnew(-1) apppdiff ma(1) equation tab5c.ls galnew c galnew(-1) micspdiff apppdiff ma(1) smpl 1976:1 1996:4 @create mean/party centered mics and approval @ equation centerm.ls micsp c dem genr micspdiff76=resid equation centera.ls app_newp c dem genr apppdiff76=resid equation tab5d.ls cbsnyt c cbsnyt(-1) micspdiff76 ma(1) equation tab5e.ls cbsnyt c cbsnyt(-1) apppdiff76 ma(1) equation tab5f.ls cbsnyt c cbsnyt(-1) micspdiff76 apppdiff76 ma(1) @ regression of approval on consumer sentiment for note 21. @ smpl 1953:1 1996:4 equation appeq.ls app_new c app_new(-1) mics jfk1 lbj1 rmn1 grf1 jec1 rwr1 ghb1 wxc1 ma(1) @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ @ Figure 4: VAR @----------------------------------------------------------------------@ smpl 1953:1 1996:4 var gal96.ls 1 8 micspdiff apppdiff galnew @ c JFK1 LBJ1 RMN1 GRF1 JEC1 RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 gal96.IMPULSE(16,M) galnew @ micspdiff apppdiff @ micspdiff apppdiff galnew smpl 1976:1 1996:4 var cbs96.ls 1 8 micspdiff76 apppdiff76 cbsnyt @ c RWR1 GHB1 WXC1 cbs96.IMPULSE(16,M) cbsnyt @ micspdiff76 apppdiff76 @ micspdiff76 apppdiff76 cbsnyt