Underlying model is lynching_t=a+b1(lynching_{t-1}+b2(economic indicator_t) Program 1: lynch.cnt (1883-1930) Program 2: lynch.20 (1883-1920) Program 3: lynch.38 (1883-1938) Variables: ayres = ayres index from Hovland and Sears lcotton = log of cotton prices from Hepworth and West lynblk = number of anti-black lynchings from Hovland and Sears laglyn = previous variable, lagged one year lblk52 = number of anti-black lynchings from Guzman (1952) lagl52 = previous variable, lagged one year bkevent= lynching events, from E.M. Beck lagbevt= previous variable, lagged one year year = year minus 1906 year2 = year squared (gauss) run c:\lynch\repl\lynch.cnt Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 59199.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.783 Rbar-squared: 0.773 Residual SS: 12855.470 Std error of est: 16.902 F(2,45): 81.113 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 7.375527 5.560290 1.326465 0.191 --- --- LAGLYN 0.889525 0.070958 12.536021 0.000 0.873997 0.880985 AYRES -0.386362 0.327581 -1.179442 0.244 -0.082229 -0.156494 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.2960 0.1049 0.1129 laglyn 0.0122 0.0011 0.0012 ayres -0.0020 0.0063 0.0063 gamma0 1.6611 0.2484 0.2284 log-likelihood = 11207.2646 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 59199.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.776 Rbar-squared: 0.766 Residual SS: 13238.303 Std error of est: 17.152 F(2,45): 78.117 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 6.732814 5.621398 1.197712 0.237 --- --- LAGLYN 0.897423 0.071833 12.493191 0.000 0.881758 0.880985 PRPCGNP -0.088160 0.396192 -0.222519 0.825 -0.015705 0.027695 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.2772 0.1039 0.1117 laglyn 0.0123 0.0011 0.0011 prpcgnp 0.0030 0.0069 0.0063 gamma0 1.6575 0.2486 0.2306 log-likelihood = 11207.3099 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 59199.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.791 Rbar-squared: 0.782 Residual SS: 12379.117 Std error of est: 16.586 F(2,45): 85.101 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 54.474063 27.379851 1.989568 0.053 --- --- LAGLYN 0.803961 0.086703 9.272546 0.000 0.789927 0.880985 LCOTTON -30.937309 17.359085 -1.782197 0.081 -0.151825 -0.625587 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 4.2409 0.5743 0.6512 laglyn 0.0105 0.0015 0.0015 lcotton -0.6235 0.3730 0.4345 gamma0 1.5891 0.2514 0.2349 log-likelihood = 11208.6246 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 59199.979 Degrees of freedom: 43 R-squared: 0.814 Rbar-squared: 0.797 Residual SS: 11011.313 Std error of est: 16.002 F(4,43): 47.045 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 36.879399 31.895352 1.156262 0.254 --- --- LAGLYN 0.660364 0.115447 5.720081 0.000 0.648837 0.880985 LCOTTON -7.460947 20.899125 -0.356998 0.723 -0.036615 -0.625587 YEAR -0.645510 0.283436 -2.277450 0.028 -0.254636 -0.709831 YEAR2 -0.017570 0.017258 -1.018071 0.314 -0.086102 -0.449797 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.2266 0.5485 0.7195 laglyn 0.0066 0.0014 0.0013 lcotton 0.4931 0.3759 0.4961 year -0.0269 0.0049 0.0052 year2 -0.0012 0.0003 0.0003 gamma0 0.7556 0.2984 0.2370 log-likelihood = 11223.7424 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 5669.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.525 Rbar-squared: 0.504 Residual SS: 2694.929 Std error of est: 7.739 F(2,45): 24.839 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 7.571461 2.800018 2.704075 0.010 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.695553 0.104065 6.683809 0.000 0.686975 0.689968 AYRES -0.320747 0.149456 -2.146092 0.037 -0.220579 -0.229902 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.4061 0.1384 0.1569 lagbevt 0.0302 0.0046 0.0052 ayres -0.0126 0.0068 0.0059 gamma0 0.7748 0.3122 0.2765 log-likelihood = 2671.7299 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 5669.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.484 Rbar-squared: 0.461 Residual SS: 2926.115 Std error of est: 8.064 F(2,45): 21.099 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 7.331005 2.914936 2.514980 0.016 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.707725 0.108987 6.493659 0.000 0.698996 0.689968 PRPCGNP -0.154937 0.187002 -0.828532 0.412 -0.089186 -0.018426 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.3785 0.1445 0.1610 lagbevt 0.0314 0.0048 0.0052 prpcgnp -0.0041 0.0087 0.0090 gamma0 0.8596 0.3045 0.2752 log-likelihood = 2670.2517 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 5669.979 Degrees of freedom: 45 R-squared: 0.514 Rbar-squared: 0.492 Residual SS: 2756.574 Std error of est: 7.827 F(2,45): 23.780 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 28.247269 11.552392 2.445145 0.018 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.596796 0.118484 5.036918 0.000 0.589436 0.689968 LCOTTON -13.799065 7.379731 -1.869860 0.068 -0.218817 -0.489625 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.4276 0.5960 0.6828 lagbevt 0.0259 0.0054 0.0057 lcotton -0.6929 0.3848 0.4630 gamma0 0.7699 0.3104 0.3097 log-likelihood = 2671.7911 n = 48 Valid cases: 48 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 5669.979 Degrees of freedom: 43 R-squared: 0.633 Rbar-squared: 0.599 Residual SS: 2078.868 Std error of est: 6.953 F(4,43): 18.570 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 31.383085 13.606997 2.306393 0.026 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.195083 0.153095 1.274264 0.209 0.192677 0.689968 LCOTTON -4.742474 8.938510 -0.530566 0.598 -0.075203 -0.489625 YEAR -0.294975 0.116259 -2.537214 0.015 -0.375985 -0.561285 YEAR2 -0.026992 0.008260 -3.267878 0.002 -0.427420 -0.590889 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:30 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.7824 0.6900 0.9628 lagbevt 0.0082 0.0062 0.0044 lcotton 0.3339 0.4687 0.6797 year -0.0237 0.0062 0.0076 year2 -0.0016 0.0004 0.0003 gamma0 0.0006 0.1342 0.0571 log-likelihood = 2683.2729 n = 48 (gauss) run c:\lynch\repl\lynch20.cnt Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 31285.816 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.646 Rbar-squared: 0.626 Residual SS: 11069.376 Std error of est: 17.784 F(2,35): 31.961 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 19.447950 8.910447 2.182601 0.036 --- --- LAGLYN 0.768813 0.102370 7.510176 0.000 0.771779 0.795789 AYRES -0.514396 0.455269 -1.129871 0.266 -0.116111 -0.275701 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.6875 0.1051 0.1031 laglyn 0.0084 0.0011 0.0011 ayres -0.0049 0.0055 0.0067 gamma0 0.9132 0.3181 0.3050 log-likelihood = 10635.9348 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 31285.816 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.635 Rbar-squared: 0.614 Residual SS: 11434.516 Std error of est: 18.075 F(2,35): 30.381 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 16.667500 8.802695 1.893454 0.067 --- --- LAGLYN 0.792443 0.101799 7.784392 0.000 0.795501 0.795789 PRPCGNP 0.174812 0.508506 0.343777 0.733 0.035131 0.041664 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.6412 0.1011 0.0930 laglyn 0.0088 0.0011 0.0009 prpcgnp 0.0039 0.0058 0.0059 gamma0 0.9240 0.3185 0.2961 log-likelihood = 10635.7793 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 31285.816 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.644 Rbar-squared: 0.624 Residual SS: 11122.625 Std error of est: 17.827 F(2,35): 31.724 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 51.919705 34.419046 1.508459 0.140 --- --- LAGLYN 0.722713 0.120518 5.996732 0.000 0.725502 0.795789 LCOTTON -22.624513 21.542899 -1.050207 0.301 -0.127057 -0.528401 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 4.2857 0.4416 0.5280 laglyn 0.0076 0.0013 0.0012 lcotton -0.4167 0.2859 0.3526 gamma0 0.8624 0.3226 0.2702 log-likelihood = 10636.6214 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: LYNBLK Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 31285.816 Degrees of freedom: 33 R-squared: 0.681 Rbar-squared: 0.642 Residual SS: 9976.817 Std error of est: 17.388 F(4,33): 17.621 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT -14.055644 47.944787 -0.293163 0.771 --- --- LAGLYN 0.673090 0.131809 5.106546 0.000 0.675687 0.795789 LCOTTON 31.718422 35.004140 0.906133 0.371 0.178128 -0.528401 YEAR -1.312926 0.719631 -1.824444 0.077 -0.501765 -0.457446 YEAR2 -0.044760 0.038481 -1.163169 0.253 -0.227583 -0.035132 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lynblk Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.1808 0.6173 0.6542 laglyn 0.0069 0.0013 0.0013 lcotton 0.4952 0.4459 0.4441 year -0.0226 0.0087 0.0053 year2 -0.0009 0.0004 0.0003 gamma0 0.5895 0.3584 0.3296 log-likelihood = 10640.0320 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 2556.763 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.230 Rbar-squared: 0.186 Residual SS: 1969.675 Std error of est: 7.502 F(2,35): 5.216 Probability of F: 0.010 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 17.069745 4.353383 3.921030 0.000 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.403428 0.148083 2.724340 0.010 0.406901 0.431182 AYRES -0.266542 0.189158 -1.409096 0.168 -0.210459 -0.257404 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.9424 0.1500 0.1229 lagbevt 0.0140 0.0049 0.0037 ayres -0.0089 0.0063 0.0060 gamma0 -0.1240 0.5052 0.5068 log-likelihood = 2506.3480 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 2556.763 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.186 Rbar-squared: 0.140 Residual SS: 2080.109 Std error of est: 7.709 F(2,35): 4.010 Probability of F: 0.027 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 16.021611 4.446919 3.602856 0.001 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.428323 0.151263 2.831645 0.008 0.432011 0.431182 PRPCGNP 0.032166 0.217024 0.148213 0.883 0.022612 0.006784 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.8983 0.1552 0.1220 lagbevt 0.0151 0.0051 0.0035 prpcgnp 0.0026 0.0075 0.0078 gamma0 -0.0189 0.1272 0.0368 log-likelihood = 2505.4573 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 2556.763 Degrees of freedom: 35 R-squared: 0.212 Rbar-squared: 0.167 Residual SS: 2015.499 Std error of est: 7.589 F(2,35): 4.700 Probability of F: 0.016 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 29.701629 13.438249 2.210231 0.034 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.356087 0.163082 2.183491 0.036 0.359153 0.431182 LCOTTON -8.958112 8.372969 -1.069885 0.292 -0.175981 -0.322983 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.4773 0.4888 0.6378 lagbevt 0.0122 0.0054 0.0042 lcotton -0.3816 0.3133 0.4352 gamma0 -0.0896 0.7131 1.1182 log-likelihood = 2506.1519 n = 38 Valid cases: 38 Dependent variable: BKEVENT Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 2556.763 Degrees of freedom: 33 R-squared: 0.355 Rbar-squared: 0.277 Residual SS: 1648.353 Std error of est: 7.068 F(4,33): 4.547 Probability of F: 0.005 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 6.629529 21.404204 0.309730 0.759 --- --- LAGBEVT 0.222422 0.176702 1.258738 0.217 0.224336 0.431182 LCOTTON 13.865438 14.798299 0.936962 0.356 0.272384 -0.322983 YEAR -0.637879 0.276756 -2.304838 0.028 -0.852760 -0.180658 YEAR2 -0.039951 0.014849 -2.690495 0.011 -0.710566 -0.270889 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: bkevent Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 2.6616 0.7670 0.9856 lagbevt 0.0070 0.0059 0.0044 lcotton 0.4387 0.5313 0.6850 year -0.0236 0.0098 0.0082 year2 -0.0015 0.0005 0.0004 gamma0 -0.6017 0.6364 0.7752 log-likelihood = 2510.2675 n = 38 (gauss) run c:\lynch\repl\lynch38.cnt Valid cases: 56 Dependent variable: LBLK52 Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 75158.125 Degrees of freedom: 53 R-squared: 0.783 Rbar-squared: 0.775 Residual SS: 16275.196 Std error of est: 17.524 F(2,53): 95.876 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 5.563233 5.209163 1.067971 0.290 --- --- LAGL52 0.897539 0.071119 12.620257 0.000 0.880556 0.885069 AYRES 0.031167 0.193193 0.161325 0.872 0.011256 0.364292 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lblk52 Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.1689 0.1045 0.1254 lagl52 0.0134 0.0011 0.0016 ayres 0.0111 0.0047 0.0046 gamma0 1.9208 0.2216 0.2015 log-likelihood = 10974.1582 n = 56 Valid cases: 56 Dependent variable: LBLK52 Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 75158.125 Degrees of freedom: 53 R-squared: 0.784 Rbar-squared: 0.775 Residual SS: 16271.193 Std error of est: 17.522 F(2,53): 95.906 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 5.132736 4.595515 1.116901 0.269 --- --- LAGL52 0.901060 0.065373 13.783386 0.000 0.884011 0.885069 PRPCGNP 0.068379 0.345929 0.197667 0.844 0.012678 0.086461 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lblk52 Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.0890 0.1068 0.1185 lagl52 0.0141 0.0011 0.0016 prpcgnp 0.0074 0.0073 0.0084 gamma0 2.0226 0.2201 0.1842 log-likelihood = 10971.8084 n = 56 Valid cases: 56 Dependent variable: LBLK52 Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 75158.125 Degrees of freedom: 53 R-squared: 0.791 Rbar-squared: 0.783 Residual SS: 15721.927 Std error of est: 17.223 F(2,53): 100.182 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 36.449705 23.186300 1.572036 0.122 --- --- LAGL52 0.857502 0.071789 11.944743 0.000 0.841277 0.885069 LCOTTON -21.445941 15.591131 -1.375522 0.175 -0.096879 -0.477165 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lblk52 Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.3009 0.5954 0.6911 lagl52 0.0137 0.0014 0.0021 lcotton -0.1310 0.4035 0.4461 gamma0 2.0411 0.2201 0.1995 log-likelihood = 10971.3594 n = 56 Valid cases: 56 Dependent variable: LBLK52 Missing cases: 0 Deletion method: None Total SS: 75158.125 Degrees of freedom: 51 R-squared: 0.827 Rbar-squared: 0.813 Residual SS: 13010.914 Std error of est: 15.972 F(4,51): 60.901 Probability of F: 0.000 Standard Prob Standardized Cor with Variable Estimate Error t-value >|t| Estimate Dep Var ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CONSTANT 49.405725 27.629099 1.788177 0.080 --- --- LAGL52 0.592396 0.110912 5.341149 0.000 0.581187 0.885069 LCOTTON -13.965423 17.265098 -0.808882 0.422 -0.063087 -0.477165 YEAR -0.597856 0.220260 -2.714324 0.009 -0.263773 -0.796133 YEAR2 -0.014765 0.011887 -1.242146 0.220 -0.110899 -0.652791 =============================================================================== Negative Binomial Regression Model =============================================================================== COUNT Version 4.0.1 12/05/97 5:31 pm =============================================================================== Data Set: lynch38 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Dependent Variable: lblk52 Parameter Estimate S.E. Het-con S.E. beta0 3.6696 0.5021 0.6483 lagl52 0.0055 0.0014 0.0014 lcotton 0.2109 0.3320 0.4385 year -0.0240 0.0037 0.0031 year2 -0.0011 0.0002 0.0002 gamma0 0.8632 0.2693 0.2482 log-likelihood = 10996.6313 n = 56 (gauss)